Halfway through calendar year 2024, and post elections, we have a more informed picture of where the year is heading. However, like many other industries, increased costs and logistical challenges in the supply chain, could influence stock availability, with the commercial segment particularly cost conscious.
For the six months under review, segment performance reflects that the commercial sector continues growing, albeit at a much lower rate, recording 1.6% growth, which is essentially the same as the 1.7% for the 2023 calendar year. Scooters performed better, reflecting an 8.6% growth after a disappointing 35% decline for 2023. The higher priced leisure segments show an overall increase of 0.8%, but with more activity in the sub 500cc segments, countering the 7-8% declines experienced in the Adventure and Cruiser segments. ATV/Side x Side sales are up 22% but much of this is driven by a new budget entrant in this segment.
Electric motorcycles and 3 wheelers continue to grow, with Jan to Jun 2024 sales exceeding total sales for 2024. Analysis of sales activity show that this is almost entirely commercial with the bulk of activity 2 wheeled motorcycles.
Used motorcycle sales statistics are only available up to April 2024 YTD, which is up 10% on the corresponding period for 2023. This is almost identical to the 10.7% increase for the same 2023/2022 comparative period. As total 2023/2022 comparison reflects a decrease of 1.8%, it is too early to speculate that used sales are in fact growing, or just reflecting seasonal activity.
The industry view is that trading conditions will continue to be tough against a backdrop of high interest rates and of poor economic growth, tempered with some positivity after the election outcome. Early predictions indicate that 2024 total new unit sales may end up at 32 500 units, which will represent a 4% increase on 2023.
Issued by Arnold Olivier, National Director, AMID
